When trying to determine the best overall starting pitchers for this season, I had to decide on using the rating system I developed based on a player’s projected WHIP, or the WAR projection I developed over the off-season. Both projections are fairly similar, but there are the occasional outliers.
Whereas my WHIP projection consists of just one formula, the WAR projection is based on FIP, which is a composite based on my formulas for walks, strikeout, innings pitched, and home runs allowed. Further complicating matters is home runs allowed is dependent on the number of innings pitched. So if I’m off on that projection, it could throw off the HR’s projection, thus seriously negating the whole WAR.
Glenn Swift is a top 10 pitcher on my WHIP rating, my FIP/WAR calculation highly dislikes him due to his perceived lack of ability to strike batters out based on his low 30 velocity rating, which is the biggest factor in determining a pitchers strikeout rate. This is despite his 6.2 and 6.6 WAR he’s posted the last two seasons, respectively.
But since I’ve decided to post end of year statistics trying to determine wins added by pitchers, I’ve decided to go the WAR route anyway in an attempt to be consistent. I’ll probably have to further refine my formula for future use though.
Top 5 AL Pitchers*
Mike Lawrie – NY1 – 6.03
Midre Hernandez – SEA – 5.60
Edgardo Carrasco – LR – 5.52
Willie Rooney – NY1 – 5.42
Olmedo Oliva – DET – 5.37
Top 5 NL Pitchers*
Malcolm McCartin – COL – 6.59
Emmanuel Estrada – TAC – 5.05
Harry Perez – TAC – 4.82
Rocky Mercedes – HON – 4.76
Pep Zimmerman – LOU – 4.71
*Based on my projections for WAR if a pitcher starts exactly 32 games
For what it’s worth, Swift was 7th in the NL at 4.51.
It would appear that the AL is at a distinct advantage when it comes to pitching, even with McCartin’s move.