Something new to the blog, well in terms of actually receiving a dedicated post rather than being lumped in with quarter three WAR numbers. Below is a shortlist of players that SHOULD be considered for awards, not ultimately what WIS will give us for votes. This is all based on data about 118-120 games into the season, so these are all subject to change. There is going to be an obvious front runner in each based off the data, but I will update these at the end of the season along with who I’m voting for.
*Note, for ease of posting, I’m not going to link to players. I trust you’ll be able to find them.
1. Howard Blake – DH – SEA – 5.8
2. Julio Rivera – LF – MIN – 5.5
3. Don Meng – DH- RIC – 5.5
4. Ivan Baez – SS – MEM – 5.1
5. Ewell Torrealba – 2B – MEM – 5.1
My thoughts: Do I think Blake is going to win the MVP when he wasn’t even an All-Star? Probably not. I think this will come down to Rivera, Baez or Torrealba.
1. Bing Tannehill – 2B – AUS – 5.4
2. Sid O’Keefe – 2B – TAC – 5.3
3. Richard Flores – C – WAS – 5.2
4. Jonathan Todd – 1B – LOU – 4.8
5. Heathcliff Dorsey – 2B – BUF – 4.5
My thoughts: This is going to come down to O’Keefe and Flores(if he even gets on the list). Tanneheill is a little below average fielding, and is boosted a tad by stolen bases. Flores has been really solid behind the plate this year.
AL Cy Young
1. Olemdo Oliva – DET – 6.2
2. Willie Rooney – SAL – 4.3
3. Mike Lawrie – NY1 – 4.3
4. Albert Grandados – SEA – 4.0
5. Ossie Borchard – SAL – 3.9
My thoughts: Oliva in a landslide. It’d be interesting to see where the Highlanders would be if Rooney was still on their team. Also, AL wins leader Jody Dubose (19) is at 2.0 giving further credence to the fact that wins are overrated.
NL Cy Young
1. Malcolm McCartin – COL – 6.9
2. Don Carter – TAC – 5.4
3. Harry Perez – TAC – 5.2
4. Willie Ellis – LOU – 4.6
5. Carlos Nieves – TRE – 4.4
My thoughts: I’ve lost count on how many Cy Young’s McCartin has won, but he’ll add to the trophy cabinet this year.
Rookie of the Year
I’m not going to try and find out which players have less than one year of service time and are eligible for this.
AL Gold Glove
C – Del Martin – MEM
1B – Esmerling Vazquez – BAL
2B – Alexi Balentien – SCO
3B – Rich Mattingly – NY1
SS – Tony Olivares – NO
LF – Cookie Albaladejo – CLE
CF – Alex Buhner – BAL
RF – Denny Scales – RIC
NL Gold Glove
C – Richard Flores – WAS
1B – Edgard Batista – TRE
2B – Heathcliff Dorsey – BUF
3B – Al Barrios – BUF
SS – Vasco Camacho – BUF
LF – Jay Jones – TRE
CF – Mikey Governale – ATL
RF – Damaso Marquez – KC
I would try to do Silver Sluggers at the moment, but the way my spreadsheet is setup it’d have to be if a player played at least 1 inning at a position he would show up at that position. So I’m going to wait until the end of the season to do them.
So in my downtime I’ve been slowly compiling historical stats for the world. I’ve got all 22 seasons of offensive and fielding data, and the first seven seasons for pitching data.
For the batters, the season count is how many times the player appears in the spreadsheet. If a player played on two teams in a given season, he’ll appear twice, so it’s not an exact representation of how many seasons they appeared in the majors.
The positional columns are the fielding statistic developed, including positional adjustments based on games played. If two fielders were close in a given season on the raw data, but one played more game, that guy will have a higher run data based on the adjustments. So just take that into account.
FRAA is just a sum of all the positional columns.
wRAA is exactly what is, weight runs above average based on wOBA.
wSB is just a gauge for how much a player contributes by stealing bases.
FRAA, wRAA and wSB is all expressed in runs.
Total WAR is expressed in wins.
The pitcher sheet is pretty self-explanatory.
I’ll update the pitcher sheet once I get more time.
I know I said I was going to post this almost immediately after the full season 22 WAR numbers were up, but I got distracted and totally forgot about it. I can’t remember if I explained the changes to the defensive metric I’m using, and I’m too lazy right now to go back and check. Essentially what it is, is converted chances minus league average rate converting total chances times the value of an out for the specified season. The full equation for those so inclined is ((PO+A)-((PO+A+E+minus play – plus plays)*lgavgrate) )*outvalue. A plus play is considered a play that a normal fielder wouldn’t make, and thus is subtracted from the total amount of chances, while a minus play is essentially treated as an error as it’s a play the fielder should have made, though not all minus plays would have been an out in the engine, there is no way of knowing without combing box scores, and like Sweet Brown, ain’t nobody got time for dat.
For a demonstration I’ll use
Ed Stockton‘s numbers from last season, in which he had 193 PO, 362 A, 11 E and 22 + plays. The league average conversion rate for chances at SS was .96, while an out was worth .296 runs. So the formula would look something like this: ((193+362)-((193+362+11+0-22)*.96))*.296=9.63.
The calculations for catcher and first base are a little different, but revolve around the same concept.
The numbers posted are raw numbers without positional adjustments for calculating total WAR, which is why they are different from the numbers on the spreadsheet I posted for season 22.
Richard Clapp – NB – 23.2
Yamid Beltran – CH1 – 16.5
Nicholas Dreifort – LA – 7.3
Frank Nakamura – NO – 5.8
Otis Justice – MIN – 6.5
Al Javier – TAC – 2.9
Huston Kielty – TUC – 7.5
Al Barrios – BUF – 5.6
Ralph Simpson – TUC – 13.4
NL: Carlos Gonzalez
- HON - 8.7
Harry Figureoa – FLA- 5.4
Albert Locke – COL – 4.3
Denny Beard – RIC – 6.8
Harry Manto – BUF – 6.1
Cesar Arrojo – MIN – 3.5
Julio Sosa – OK – 3.5
I’ve got the final numbers for season 22.
We’ll just get the easy one out of the way as we all know
Malcolm McCartin is going to win the NL Cy Young Award. This year he’s been worth four wins more than the next closest pitcher in the league, which is surprising because he’s in frickin Colorado of all places.
In the AL,
Mike Lawrie ended up pulling away in the last quarter to take the crown in terms of WAR. We’ll see how the votes fall.
I’ll have the LC’s Golden Gloves here in a day or so.
The full spreadsheet for both pitchers and batters can be found here.