Something new to the blog, well in terms of actually receiving a dedicated post rather than being lumped in with quarter three WAR numbers. Below is a shortlist of players that SHOULD be considered for awards, not ultimately what WIS will give us for votes. This is all based on data about 118-120 games into the season, so these are all subject to change. There is going to be an obvious front runner in each based off the data, but I will update these at the end of the season along with who I’m voting for.
*Note, for ease of posting, I’m not going to link to players. I trust you’ll be able to find them.
1. Howard Blake – DH – SEA – 5.8
2. Julio Rivera – LF – MIN – 5.5
3. Don Meng – DH- RIC – 5.5
4. Ivan Baez – SS – MEM – 5.1
5. Ewell Torrealba – 2B – MEM – 5.1
My thoughts: Do I think Blake is going to win the MVP when he wasn’t even an All-Star? Probably not. I think this will come down to Rivera, Baez or Torrealba.
1. Bing Tannehill – 2B – AUS – 5.4
2. Sid O’Keefe – 2B – TAC – 5.3
3. Richard Flores – C – WAS – 5.2
4. Jonathan Todd – 1B – LOU – 4.8
5. Heathcliff Dorsey – 2B – BUF – 4.5
My thoughts: This is going to come down to O’Keefe and Flores(if he even gets on the list). Tanneheill is a little below average fielding, and is boosted a tad by stolen bases. Flores has been really solid behind the plate this year.
AL Cy Young
1. Olemdo Oliva – DET – 6.2
2. Willie Rooney – SAL – 4.3
3. Mike Lawrie – NY1 – 4.3
4. Albert Grandados – SEA – 4.0
5. Ossie Borchard – SAL – 3.9
My thoughts: Oliva in a landslide. It’d be interesting to see where the Highlanders would be if Rooney was still on their team. Also, AL wins leader Jody Dubose (19) is at 2.0 giving further credence to the fact that wins are overrated.
NL Cy Young
1. Malcolm McCartin – COL – 6.9
2. Don Carter – TAC – 5.4
3. Harry Perez – TAC – 5.2
4. Willie Ellis – LOU – 4.6
5. Carlos Nieves – TRE – 4.4
My thoughts: I’ve lost count on how many Cy Young’s McCartin has won, but he’ll add to the trophy cabinet this year.
Rookie of the Year
I’m not going to try and find out which players have less than one year of service time and are eligible for this.
AL Gold Glove
C – Del Martin – MEM
1B – Esmerling Vazquez – BAL
2B – Alexi Balentien – SCO
3B – Rich Mattingly – NY1
SS – Tony Olivares – NO
LF – Cookie Albaladejo – CLE
CF – Alex Buhner – BAL
RF – Denny Scales – RIC
NL Gold Glove
C – Richard Flores – WAS
1B – Edgard Batista – TRE
2B – Heathcliff Dorsey – BUF
3B – Al Barrios – BUF
SS – Vasco Camacho – BUF
LF – Jay Jones – TRE
CF – Mikey Governale – ATL
RF – Damaso Marquez – KC
I would try to do Silver Sluggers at the moment, but the way my spreadsheet is setup it’d have to be if a player played at least 1 inning at a position he would show up at that position. So I’m going to wait until the end of the season to do them.
Just like the pitching rankings, here is the batter rankings. This is just based on a team’s average hitting ability, with no fielding ratings taken into account because of the effect actual position played has on whether a player is a good fielder or not. It’s one thing to have 80/80/80/80 at SS, but entirely different to have that player at 3b.
Minnesota and Washington should fall back to the pack once they fill out their rosters.
I forgot which formula I based the overall number off of, whether it was OBP, SLG, or OPS, but knowing my mindset when I created it last year, it’s probably OPS.
So now we know the relative strengths of each team’s starting rotation, bullpen, and hitters, which leads me into me next blog post…
Like last year, I’ve got the opening day ratings for both starting rotations and bullpens as way to kind of develop the preseason power rankings, if you will.
The first picture is the starting rotation rankings for season 23. It goes: Team Acronym; Total WAR projection; # of Pitchers; Average WAR Rating for Staff; Average Overall Rating for Staff.
The average overall rating is essentially out of 100. I have a fairly reliable rating weight system. I take each rating, multiply it by the weight, and then divide by the maximum score to get a number out of 100. The WAR rating is similar, but made up of aggregate projections for innings pitched, strikeouts, homeruns and walks, and as such isn’t as reliable in my opinion than the straight up overall.
I have five “tiers” of pitchers based on the overall number:
- 100-78 I would consider an “elite” starter, of which there are 11 in the league right now.
- 77-75 are solid, borderline elites, of which there are 14. These guys would be #2’s on playoff teams, or aces on non-competing teams.
- 74-71 are your 2-3 starters. I see 38 total.
- 71-68 are your 3-4 guys. There are 34.
- 67 and under are back of the rotation pitchers/AAA guys. Playoff teams won’t have these guys typically. 63 total.
Yes, by my rating scheme there aren’t enough pitchers 65 and higher for every team to fill out a five man rotation. How I came up with these is I dumped something like 2000 starting pitchers from a number of different worlds into a spreadsheet, applied the formula to them and took the four quartiles to what came out (or something like that, it’s been like two years since I did this, so the memory is a little fuzzy. I believe the top two tiers were split up at one point, which is why there are five total tiers).
For what it’s worth, there is one ace at AA, one tier two pitcher at AAA, three tier three pitchers at AAA, and 19 tier three/four pitchers at AAA. As far as free agents go, they are pretty well picked over at this point, but anyone looking to say, I don’t know, not tank, there are three tier four guys out there.
The relief rankings follow pretty much the same formula as the starters.
The WAR numbers are going to be a off just because it’s based on the number of innings pitched, and with relievers it’s a crapshoot for how other managers handle their bullpen settings.
So draw your own conclusions from this data. I already know what I’m thinking.
Still no Torrealba sighting, but there is no more “bidding” to be done, as multiple teams have max contracts out to him, so it’s all a crapshoot at this point.
Surprisingly New York has yet to make a free agent signing this year as he’s about $8 or $9 million from his cap right now.
After getting called out on the world chat,
Chase Fassero signs the next cycle for Colorado.
Julio Sosa will call Baltimore home for the next three years.
I picked up
Albert Sojo on a two year deal to cover my long relief role, and provide some extra starting pitcher depth if a guy in my rotation goes down. I probably could’ve waited a couple more cycles and got him cheaper, though I did have him as the 8th best SP this FA cycle.
Brant Wulf moves to Little Rock after a very productive season in Richmond.
Outside of Torrealba there aren’t too many “impact” bats left out there. Don’t get me wrong, there are some very productive guys left, but nothing game changing.
Also I might start a “Tanking Watch” section to the blog as Kansas City hasn’t signed a player other than to a minor league deal at this point.