Tagged: WAR

Career WAR

So in my downtime I’ve been slowly compiling historical stats for the world. I’ve got all 22 seasons of offensive and fielding data, and the first seven seasons for pitching data.

The spreadsheet with all the data I’ve got so far can be found here.

For the batters, the season count is how many times the player appears in the spreadsheet. If a player played on two teams in a given season, he’ll appear twice, so it’s not an exact representation of how many seasons they appeared in the majors.

The positional columns are the fielding statistic developed, including positional adjustments based on games played. If two fielders were close in a given season on the raw data, but one played more game, that guy will have a higher run data based on the adjustments. So just take that into account.

FRAA is just a sum of all the positional columns.

wRAA is exactly what is, weight runs above average based on wOBA.

wSB is just a gauge for how much a player contributes by stealing bases.

FRAA, wRAA and wSB is all expressed in runs.

Total WAR is expressed in wins.

The pitcher sheet is pretty self-explanatory.

 

I’ll update the pitcher sheet once I get more time.

Vin Scully – Season 22 – Full Season

I’ve got the final numbers for season 22.

We’ll just get the easy one out of the way as we all know Malcolm McCartin is going to win the NL Cy Young Award. This year he’s been worth four wins more than the next closest pitcher in the league, which is surprising because he’s in frickin Colorado of all places.

In the AL, Mike Lawrie ended up pulling away in the last quarter to take the crown in terms of WAR. We’ll see how the votes fall.

NL MVP should go to Sid O'Keefe at 8.6. The next two closest people in the NL were Richard Flores at 6.4 and Jordy Mitchell at 6.2.

Despite not making it to the playoffs, the AL MVP should go to Max Daniels at 8.1. Ewell Torrealba and Giovanni Boyd were at 7.2 and 7.1 respectively.

AL ROY should go to Phillip Harris with 4.3 while NL ROY is a tie between Al Javier and Rob Watson at 3.6.

I’ll have the LC’s Golden Gloves here in a day or so.

The full spreadsheet for both pitchers and batters can be found here.

Season 22 – Third Quarter WAR

I’m not going to bother writing up something short on what the third quarter pitching WAR numbers are, as I basically laid it all out in the little chat message. McCartin is the clear favorite in the NL, with Lawrie, Oliva and Bourchard fighting it out in the AL. If I had to bet, I’d bet on Bourchard was his BABIP is near .300, and the other two are well under .300. I’d expect them to fall back a little, but hey, who knows.

As far as batter WAR figures, in the AL it’s a close race between Giovanni Boyd, and Ewell Torrealba. Interesting enough, neither are playing on a team that looks like they’re going to make it to the playoffs.

To find that player, you’d have to go down to Dennis Park with Little Rock, who is definitely overplaying his ratings offensively.

In the NL, clearly Sid O'Keefe is the favorite for NL MVP in my opinion.

The full spreadsheet can be found here.

Season 22- Quarter Two – Batters

I’ll start this post by stating that the WAR spreadsheet that I used to base these numbers off of made a lot of changes since the last time I posted.

Gone are the arbitrary fielding numbers that I worked up off of MikeT23’s PPI system. In are the new modified fielding percentages developed with jtrinsey. Essentially it takes the number of outs generated by a player, divided by the number of chances, with minus plays included, and plus plays subtracted from the total chances. So a player with more + plays than errors will see his total fielding percentage over 1.000. 

This gets us to the number of plays above average a player converted into outs, and since the wOBA calculator tells us how much each out is worth during the season, we multiply the two together to tell us how many runs a player was worth in the field.

The top defenders at each position will save about 12-17 runs over the course of a season based on full season numbers, from the limited tests I’ve seen. So gone are the days where a player is worth 40 runs from fielding alone.

I’ve also included the baserunning component of WAR for the first time. From what I’ve seen, the top base stealers in the league will be worth two wins, at most.

Most Valuable Players – Q2
Giovanni Boyd moves into the front-runner position for the AL, and he’s a clear front-runner at this point. Since I named him as the Q1 MVP, Marv Brinkley has done squat, but that’s to be expected since LA has been abandoned.

Jordy Mitchell has also fallen back into the peloton since I named him Q1 MVP for the NL.

Currently Sid O'Keefe has a slight lead over Alex Zhou. It’ll be interesting to see what happens the rest of the way. Speaking of Zhou, first ballot hall of famer, right? He has to be.

Least Valuable Players – Q2 

Both Sherm Kerr and Harry Manto are at the bottom of the NL in terms of WAR. Yes, Harry Manto, the guy I tried to say saved something like 40-50 runs last year with his defense in CF. He’s putting in good defense this year again, but the fielding runs stats aren’t worth as much now.

In the AL, Monte Winn is clearly the least valuable player by about .6 wins at this point.

I’ll have pitcher data later, but if you want a sneak peak at the full spreadsheet, click here.

Correction

The definition given for how the power rankings were developed was incorrectly stated in a post on the front page of the Vin Scully Hardball Dynasty blog Friday. Instead it should have been noted that both batting and fielding breakouts were based off of league average.

The Vin Scully Hardball Dynasty blog regrets the error.

To see the correct breakout of Offensive/Fielding WAR, along with pitching WAR, click here.